Trump Hosts Erdoğan as U.S. Signals Possible Shift on F-35s
What happened, why it matters, and what to watch next for US–Türkiye relations
By TC-USA PAC Editorial
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump welcomed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to the White House, signaling the United States may reconsider its hold on advanced F-35 fighter jet sales to Ankara. The meeting marked Erdoğan’s first White House visit since 2019 and came with hints from Trump that the freeze on F-35s—imposed after Türkiye’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system—could be eased.
What changed
Warmer top-level dialogue: The two leaders, who built a close rapport in Trump’s first term, met at the White House and publicly underscored cooperation, including on defense issues. AP News
F-35 reconsideration: Trump indicated the U.S. might soon lift its stop on F-35 sales to Türkiye, a NATO ally removed from the program in 2019 over S-400 concerns. U.S. officials had argued the Russian system risked exposing F-35 secrets.
Why this matters
Alliance cohesion: A path back to the F-35 would signal a tangible reset inside NATO, easing a yearslong rift over the S-400 purchase and potentially improving interoperability.
Regional deterrence: Access to fifth-generation aircraft would strengthen Türkiye’s posture across the Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and Middle East—areas where Ankara’s airpower and basing rights influence wider coalition planning.
Policy tradeoffs: Any movement on F-35s will likely be linked to concrete steps on export controls, tech protection, and deconfliction with Russian systems—tests of trust for both capitals.
The fine print
S-400 remains the hinge: Washington’s core issue hasn’t changed: separating Russian air-defense infrastructure from NATO’s most sensitive platforms. Durable technical safeguards and verifiable procedures would be required before any F-35 path is cleared. AP News
Timing and sequencing: Even if the hold is lifted, training, delivery slots, and industrial re-integration are multi-year processes. Policymakers will watch whether this visit launches working groups with specific milestones.
What could follow
A phased re-entry plan: Confidence-building steps (data protections, site protocols, and software compartmentalization) could underpin a staged return to F-35 participation or to alternative airpower packages if needed.
Wider agenda linkages: Energy diversification, defense-industrial cooperation, and regional crisis management (Ukraine, Syria, the South Caucasus) all sit downstream from renewed trust; progress on one track can accelerate the others.
What to watch next
Official guidance from DoD/State: Look for technical frameworks addressing S-400/F-35 separation, and whether Congress is looped in early.
Industrial signals: Clues from Lockheed Martin and the Joint Program Office on production slots and partner workshare.
Regional posture: Any visible changes in U.S.–Türkiye air cooperation, exercises, or basing that reflect a thaw.