From Tension to Tango? The U.S.–Turkey Relationship Under Trump 2.0
How Erdoğan Walked a Geopolitical Tightrope Amid the Israel–Iran Ceasefire – On June 24, 2025, as a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran took hold, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan found himself recalibrating Ankara’s diplomatic posture. Navigating between rivalry with Tehran and alliance with Washington, Erdoğan pursued several strategic shifts to safeguard Turkey’s interests amid regional uncertainty.
Strategic Maneuvering in Regional Diplomacy
Playing mediator, not participant: Ankara pitched itself as a diplomatic bridge. Erdoğan reportedly proposed hosting U.S.–Iran talks in Istanbul—though this faltered when Iran’s leadership couldn’t signal timely approval.
- Recasting Israel’s role: Turkey’s messaging dismissed Israeli airstrikes on Iran as part of a broader “strategy of destabilization,” warning they threatened multipolarity in the Middle East and could legitimize “might makes right” in the region.
Military & Defense Realignment
Bolstering air defenses: Erdoğan flagged urgent needs for improved air protection, stressing Turkey’s NATO radar at Kürecik and hinting that it might be a target if conflict resurged.
- Pursuing F‑35 re‑entry: With Trump back in office, Erdoğan renewed calls to rejoin the U.S./F‑35 program—both as a defense necessity and a symbol of restored trust with Washington.
- Expanding missile programs: Turkey announced ramp-ups in medium- and long-range missile production—part of a broader initiative to close the gap in aerial deterrence.
Economic & Security Risk Mitigation
Shoring up economic stability: A flare-up between Israel and Iran risked sending oil prices parabolic. Erdoğan was reportedly focused on avoiding a new wave of refugees and economic shocks at home.
Resetting U.S.–Turkey Ties
Erdoğan leaned into renewed access to the White House under Trump:
The Istanbul-brokered peace proposal counted on U.S. support behind the scenes.
Erdoğan underscored Turkey’s air-defense and NATO roles—emphasizing platforms like Incirlik and Kürecik—to argue Ankara remains a strategic partner.