Is the Israel–Iran War a “Dry Run” for a Future Israeli–Turkish Conflict?
The recent conflict between Israel and Iran isn’t just a regional crisis—it may serve as a geopolitical rehearsal for a potential clash involving Turkey. According to Michael Rubin’s recent analysis in National Security Journal, key dynamics in this Israel–Iran confrontation echo the evolving posture of President Erdoğan’s Turkey
1. Turkey’s Military-Nuclear Trajectory
Rubin warns that Erdoğa mirrors Iran’s past path: developing a domestic arms industry, pursuing civilian nuclear power that could conceal military ambitions, and quietly supporting groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
If these trends continue, Turkey could shift from regional ally to adversary—raising the stakes for NATO and the U.S.
2. Rhetoric and Proxy Support
Much like Iran’s leadership, Erdoğan has adopted harsh anti-Israel language while providing platforms for Gaza-linked operatives. Additionally, he’s reportedly allowed Hezbollah financial support to flow through Turkish channels.
3. NATO’s Dilemma
A future Israel–Turkey engagement would complicate alliance loyalties. While Turkey is a NATO member, Rubin argues that Article V could be paralyzed by U.S. blocking support for Israel in such a scenari
Foreign Policy Implications
Avoiding Past Mistakes: Just as policymakers previously underestimated Iran’s nuclear and ideological evolution, Rubin warns against discounting Turkey’s shifting stance.
Pressure or Partnership: The U.S. may need to resort to “maximum pressure” tactics—sanctions, diplomatic isolation—to deter Erdoğan, rather than relying on existing NATO structures.
Rechecking NATO Dynamics: Engaging Turkey may require sensitive recalibration—balancing between partnership and containment.
The Israel–Iran conflict offers a preview of what might unfold if Turkey continues on its current trajectory. Erdoğan’s nuclear ambitions, proxy affiliations, and escalating rhetoric raise the real possibility of a far more devastating future confrontation—one that could pit NATO members against each other.
Washington must adopt a forward-looking strategy. This means reassessing the U.S.–Turkey relationship, strengthening deterrents, and ensuring robust contingency planning—not just reacting, but staying ahead of potential crises.